State of Rates — State of Rates

October 20, 2023

Latest Market Commentary.

Queue the broken record - mortgage rates tripped and fell on their face out of the block this week, with rates moving up Monday for no apparent reason other than they just wanted to keep testing long-term highs.

Tuesday’s much anticipated retails sales number delivered an unwanted gut punch blowing out the expected 0.2% increase in spending with a whopping 0.7% increase. Rates acted in kind and continued their climb towards 30-year highs.

For the first time since 2007, we saw nearly the entire Treasury Yield Curve (2s -30s) at, or over, 5%. Initially, the situation in Israel seemed positive for rates, but the need to sell more treasuries for the war effort will likely keep rates climbing.

The trend of higher rates for a longer duration continues, and we're keeping an eye on next week's Q3 GDP report to gauge our economy's growth in the third quarter.

Your Weekly Market Movers.

Thursday Friday

GDP - Q3 CORE PCE

Should I Lock or Float?

We are strongly biased towards locking rates at application vs. floating until the data tells us otherwise. If you are greater than 60 days out and have a major appetite for some risk, there is potential upside by waiting until you’re 30 days out or less, but you’ll need some luck!

The Housing Market in Three.

1.) September existing home sales tumbled to their lowest point since 2010.

2.) September sales were at a median price of $394,300, an increase of 2.8 percent from the September 2022 median of $383,500.

3.) After its third consecutive monthly retreat, the builder confidence level is now at 40,the lowest point since January 2023.