State of Rates
October 16, 2023
Latest Market Commentary.
In the intricate world of finance, there are two kinds of market-moving events: the expected and the unexpected. Geopolitical incidents, in particular, tend to emerge out of the blue and can exert an impact on financial markets that rivals, if not surpasses, that of regular economic events. Last weekend's unfortunate events in Israel serve as a stark example of such an unforeseen occurrence, leading to a flight to safety in the US Treasury market. This resulted in a notable decline in interest rates throughout the entire business week, a trend that investors and analysts are closely monitoring. As the situation in the region unfolds, its implications on the market remain uncertain.
The foremost market catalyst last week was the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. While the report didn't reveal a significant increase in inflation, it failed to provide the decrease that the market had been hoping for. In the world of finance, good news is often the preferred currency, and the market's response to this news was evident with a significant uptick in interest rates on both Thursday and Friday.
Moving forward, the market will continue to keep an eye on geopolitical events, but any domestic economic data will almost certainly weigh more heavily, especially as time goes by.
Your Weekly Market Movers.
Tuesday Thursday
Retail Sales Philly Fed Index
Should I Lock or Float?
We are strongly biased towards locking rates at application vs. floating until the data tells us otherwise. If you are greater than 60 days out and have a major appetite for some risk, there is potential upside by waiting until you’re 30 days out or less, but you’ll need some luck!
The Housing Market in Three.
1.) Nationally, inventory increased 1.8% week over week.
2.) Year over year, there's a 3.5% decrease in new listings, which represents the number of sellers putting their homes up for sale.
3.) In August, home sales reached 4.04 million units, with an average price of $407,100.