State of Rates
September 29, 2023
Latest Market Commentary.
The bond markets have had another challenging week, as mortgage rates continue to test multi-year highs. Investors are adjusting to the reality of higher rates, and uncertainty is causing more selling than buying. In fact, the 10-year treasury bonds have reached levels not seen since 2007. The question on everyone's mind is: What comes next?
Key Upcoming Events to Watch
All eyes are now on a few significant events that could influence the direction of mortgage rates in the coming weeks. First on the horizon is the September non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for next week. The market anticipates the addition of 158,000 jobs for the month of September. However, for those closely tracking interest rates, a lower-than-expected number would be seen as a positive outcome.
Following the job report, we have the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to look forward to. The outcome of both reports will play a crucial role in determining the near-term trajectory of mortgage rates. If these economic indicators align favorably, there may be some relief for borrowers in the form of lower rates. Conversely, unfavorable results could mean more of the same - higher rates.
The Current Outlook
Until we receive data suggesting otherwise or an unexpected "black swan" event occurs, it's prudent to anticipate that rates will either remain stable or continue to inch upwards from their current levels. It's essential to remember that, in the world of interest rates, the higher they climb, the faster and more dramatic their descent can be.
Stay informed, stay vigilant, and keep a close eye on the economic indicators. We'll be here to provide updates and insights as the mortgage rate landscape evolves.
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Your Weekly Market Movers.
Monday Tuesday
ISM Manufacturing PMI JOLTS Job Openings - August
Wednesday Friday
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Non-Farm Payrolls
Should I Lock or Float?
We are strongly biased towards locking rates at application vs. floating until the data tells us otherwise. If you are greater than 60 days out and have a major appetite for some risk, there is potential upside by waiting until you’re 30 days out or less, but you’ll need some luck!
The Housing Market in Three.
1.) Active inventory declined off or-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 3.7%.
2.) New listings, a measure of sellers putting their homes up for sale, were down again this week, by 7.5% from one year ago.
3.) Asking rents down 1.2% Year-Over-Year.