State of Rates

August 28, 2023

Latest Market Commentary.

After a tumultuous August, mortgage and treasury rates had their first respite in nearly 3 weeks, ending the week down roughly .1%. While this is akin to putting a band aid on an ax wound, every little bit helps, and the journey of 1k miles starts with a step. The new rate mantra “higher for longer” has truly set in, and bond traders are doing what they do- trade accordingly.

CPI, once thought to be the primary driver in the Fed’s rate decisions, has taken a back seat to the Data Dependent Narrative and this week will give the fed plenty to chew on. Expect plenty of volatility this week with the primary focus being Friday’s NFP report.

Your Weekly Market Movers.

Tuesday Thursday

JOLTS at 10 am Claims and PCE at 8:30 AM

Wednesday Friday

ADP at 8:15 am August Non Farm Payrolls at 8:30am

Q2 GDP at 8:30 am ISM Manufacturing at 10am

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Should I Lock or Float?

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Until the data tells us otherwise, our bias is towards locking rates at application vs. floating until the data tells us otherwise.

The Housing Market in Three.

1.) New Home Sales Increase to 714k annual rate in July

2.) Existing home sales decreased to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97MM in July

3.) Existing home sales down 16.6% from same time last year